Currency Market Review: Shekel Falls as Norwegian Krone Makes Gains
Currency Market Review: Shekel Falls as Norwegian Krone Makes Gains
I Know First’s Successful Forecast
On January 20, 2019 I Know First’s algorithm issued bearish predictions for a 30-day time horizon for the majority of currency pairs, but also recommended some for bullish behavior. USD/ILS (U.S. Dollar vs. Israeli Shekel) for example was predicted to fall over the past month, and it is now down 2.19%. NOK/SEK (Norwegian Krone vs. Swedish Krona) and GBP/JPY (British Pound vs. Japanese Yen) on the other hand were predicted to rise and exhibited increases of 2.88% and 2.38% respectively.
Shekel Falls
Over the past month, the Israeli Shekel has fallen significantly when compared to the U.S. Dollar. The revitalization of the U.S. economy from its December lows are the main factor here. The S&P 500, as can be seen in the second chart below, is very well inversely correlated to the USD/ILS trading pair. There were no significant events in the Israeli central bank that affected the exchange rate during this time period, so the American economy is likely the driving cause.
United States Dollar vs. Israeli Shekel
(Source: DailyFX, February 25, 2019)
S&P 500 Index
(Source: TradingView, February 25, 2019)
Norwegian Krone Makes Gains
From the end of January through the middle of February, the Norwegian Krone saw a steady increase in relation to the neighboring Swedish Krona. Economic news and expectations coming from Sweden have been especially weak in the past several weeks, and a major contributor to the rise in the exchange rate. These economic concerns might inhibit the Swedish central bank from rising interest rates. If they decide to halt the rate hike, then this currency pair could see further gains.
Norwegian Krone vs. Swedish Krona
(Source: DailyFX, February 25, 2019)
Pound rises against Yen
Despite worries about Brexit that contributed to the volatility in the GBP/JPY currency pair, the Pound gained value on the Yen over the past month. One of the main concerns for the Yen’s value over the past month was the impact of the U.S./China trade war on Japan’s economy. This trade war, if not resolved, could indirectly affect Japan by making imported raw materials and parts more expensive, as well as disrupting supply chains. Recent news however seems to indicate major steps by both the U.S. and China to end the trade war. This should be kept in mind in the future for the GBP/JPY currency pair.
British Pound vs. Japanese Yen
(Source: DailyFX, February 25, 2019)
I Know First’s Currency Forecast
On the chart below, you can see I Know First’s Currency Forecasts for the past 30 days. They include both long and short recommendations. The hit ratio for this forecast was 61.54%.
